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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261721
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 26 Jun 2017 21:47:07 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261722
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located a couple of hundred miles south of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane DORA (EP4/EP042017)

...DORA MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 26
 the center of DORA was located near 17.8, -107.3
 with movement WNW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 981 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane DORA Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 262040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...DORA MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 107.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next
couple days.  On the forecast track, the center of Dora will
continue to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico and pass
well to the south of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dora is expected to produce additional rain accumulations
of up to 1 inch along coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero and Michoacan into this evening.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the
coast of southwest Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane DORA Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 262040
TCMEP4

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017
2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.3W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.3W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane DORA Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 262041
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Since the previous advisory, Dora's cloud pattern has noticeably
eroded, with cloud tops having warmed considerably and the earlier
embedded eye feature having devolved into more of a banding eye
structure. Satellite intensity estimates remain a consensus T4.5/77
kt from TAFB and SAB, and NHC automated Dvorak intensity estimates
have been steady at 80-82 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has
been increased slightly to 80 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains a steady 295/11 kt. The global
and regional models maintain the deep-layer ridge to the north of
Dora throughout the forecast period, keeping the hurricane on a
west-northwestward track for the next 48-72 hours, followed by a
turn toward the west thereafter until dissipation occurs by 120
hours. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed around
the previous advisory track now that the ECMWF has shifted farther
to the north. As a result, only minor tweaks had to made to the
forecast track, which lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.

Dora has likely peaked in intensity, and is now starting to feel the
negative effects of cooler water and more stable air just to its
north. The hurricane should move over sub-26 C SSTs within the next
6-12 hours, which will induce gradual weakening. However, proximity
to warm, unstable air just to the south of Dora's track, along with
very favorable shear and outflow patterns, should act to temper the
weakening rate somewhat. Dora is expected to become a tropical storm
by 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours, if not
sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity
consensus model IVCN.

Although the center of Dora is forecast to move farther away from
mainland Mexico, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief
locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico
into this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 17.8N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND
 36H  28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane DORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 262040
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017               
2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80   
KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  3  52(55)   5(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
20N 110W       50  X   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2  71(73)  15(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X  21(21)  28(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)  15(20)  20(40)   X(40)   X(40)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane DORA Graphics

Hurricane DORA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 21:24:44 GMT

Hurricane DORA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 21:24:44 GMT